* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 10/10/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 44 48 47 42 34 26 18 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 44 48 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 35 36 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 1 5 8 10 23 32 50 53 45 49 SHEAR DIR 38 3 63 192 191 255 233 236 220 227 250 276 294 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.7 31.0 30.3 28.9 24.8 23.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 156 155 154 153 162 173 170 156 115 101 118 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -54.5 -55.1 -56.3 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 9 6 8 6 7 4 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 58 59 55 52 50 46 51 54 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 49 37 34 40 5 19 6 8 -3 7 -29 -67 200 MB DIV 3 11 7 5 6 19 15 31 36 54 23 -32 -48 LAND (KM) 196 206 233 255 277 300 120 15 -267 -573 -673 -500 -318 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.0 20.4 22.3 24.5 27.0 29.7 32.5 33.8 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.3 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.9 108.9 107.9 106.4 104.7 101.6 96.5 90.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 6 7 7 9 10 13 15 17 20 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 47 42 40 42 37 30 43 63 10 18 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. -5. -15. -22. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 23. 22. 17. 9. 1. -7. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 10/10/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 10/10/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED