* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 10/10/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 41 44 46 47 47 48 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 41 44 44 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 31 31 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 4 5 3 3 8 7 21 25 25 23 24 18 SHEAR DIR 62 63 72 23 82 176 235 217 238 229 243 257 309 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.5 29.5 30.9 31.2 30.5 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 152 152 149 149 160 171 170 169 161 159 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 6 4 7 2 6 2 700-500 MB RH 67 63 60 56 56 50 45 46 47 48 42 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 46 48 39 38 22 6 -1 -25 -47 -14 1 200 MB DIV 47 40 21 32 35 26 29 27 2 -2 5 -16 -18 LAND (KM) 382 398 425 435 447 388 228 31 90 -63 -163 -306 -429 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.4 20.9 22.8 24.7 26.2 27.5 28.6 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.6 108.2 108.7 109.2 110.0 110.5 110.3 109.5 108.6 108.1 107.3 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 35 33 23 21 29 15 63 30 14 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 28. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 23. 23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 10/10/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 10/10/09 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING