* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 10/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 42 43 43 42 41 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 42 43 43 42 41 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 35 34 34 34 34 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 6 6 9 6 9 5 9 14 15 17 17 SHEAR DIR 96 95 95 91 100 121 166 201 172 169 172 164 118 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 153 152 149 146 146 148 148 146 146 150 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 60 60 57 50 45 41 40 41 47 53 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 47 36 40 51 33 24 0 13 66 79 91 200 MB DIV 53 32 33 26 36 45 36 9 25 21 14 35 10 LAND (KM) 574 576 583 584 588 569 488 465 560 710 971 1359 1749 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.8 18.7 19.3 19.5 19.4 18.4 16.7 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.6 109.0 109.4 109.8 110.5 111.4 112.3 114.0 116.0 118.7 122.1 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 12 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 49 48 44 38 26 28 27 26 30 16 13 7 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 376 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 16. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 10/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 10/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY