* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 10/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 41 42 43 43 45 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 41 42 43 43 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 13 14 17 16 14 8 9 12 12 16 SHEAR DIR 82 83 76 92 119 118 157 151 146 148 140 117 113 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 154 151 150 149 151 151 148 145 146 139 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 63 63 58 56 49 42 41 40 47 50 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 51 58 67 53 43 19 0 26 41 48 53 200 MB DIV 51 44 36 34 33 42 24 -4 -4 -8 16 -12 -1 LAND (KM) 583 602 631 656 684 656 662 737 889 1067 1290 1532 1771 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.2 16.7 16.3 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.3 110.9 112.0 113.1 114.4 116.3 118.6 121.2 123.9 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 7 6 6 8 10 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 43 36 31 35 37 41 42 30 7 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 20. 21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 10/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 10/11/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY