* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 10/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 29 33 35 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 29 33 35 34 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 26 25 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 3 5 10 10 11 7 8 9 14 13 SHEAR DIR 93 115 153 179 112 193 217 213 232 152 172 174 188 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.7 27.7 26.3 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 150 147 148 152 153 150 139 125 114 110 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 6 3 5 3 5 3 700-500 MB RH 67 61 62 59 57 52 47 43 39 38 33 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 51 48 40 21 4 -24 -25 -31 -36 -33 -3 200 MB DIV 61 38 28 26 23 30 0 3 -3 4 -7 -6 3 LAND (KM) 483 475 471 464 389 236 132 124 116 110 222 295 386 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.8 21.8 22.7 23.7 24.4 24.7 24.9 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.9 109.4 109.8 110.1 110.4 110.5 111.3 112.3 113.3 114.5 115.8 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 32 17 15 21 29 32 19 13 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 9. 8. 8. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 10/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 10/11/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED