* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192009 10/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 29 32 36 39 39 38 36 35 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 29 32 36 39 39 38 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 34 35 35 36 37 37 35 32 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 4 2 5 11 13 5 6 10 9 14 9 SHEAR DIR 52 52 360 9 219 225 247 211 136 178 168 177 147 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.5 29.5 29.0 27.8 26.3 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 150 149 152 157 158 153 141 126 119 117 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 62 61 58 57 51 49 43 38 35 34 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 39 28 21 15 -18 -12 -32 -31 -25 -18 0 200 MB DIV 41 21 22 18 33 19 -8 5 0 7 -3 2 -18 LAND (KM) 434 428 426 396 311 145 30 44 84 142 291 447 589 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.1 21.6 22.7 23.3 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.8 109.3 109.7 110.0 110.2 110.2 110.8 111.9 113.3 115.0 116.7 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 7 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 27 21 24 25 31 23 18 24 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 NINETEEN 10/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 NINETEEN 10/11/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY