* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/12/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 46 48 49 50 49 49 47 48 48 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 46 48 49 50 49 49 47 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 51 53 54 55 54 53 52 50 49 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 7 2 3 7 14 13 9 12 5 8 SHEAR DIR 74 56 71 114 178 108 120 102 154 132 174 191 218 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.6 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 150 152 153 152 150 146 139 130 125 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 7 7 8 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 60 56 50 48 44 39 37 31 30 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 16 11 23 26 6 15 -10 -8 0 14 26 32 200 MB DIV 23 13 23 30 8 -4 7 -2 2 -6 5 -13 -15 LAND (KM) 406 383 372 338 276 174 111 105 162 221 251 373 527 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.0 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.3 109.5 110.1 110.8 111.6 112.6 113.8 115.4 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 27 26 25 29 34 27 18 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 8. 8. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/12/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/12/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY