* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/12/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 57 57 59 59 55 52 48 44 42 41 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 57 57 59 59 55 52 48 44 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 59 60 62 64 64 61 55 49 45 41 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 2 5 3 5 10 7 9 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 74 127 243 351 277 231 92 139 139 158 129 224 5 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.5 26.3 25.4 24.8 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 148 147 146 137 125 116 109 108 109 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 5 7 5 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 50 49 45 43 42 40 34 31 28 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 22 18 7 14 0 -2 0 -4 10 1 7 200 MB DIV 27 16 -1 -17 -23 2 -2 -1 -9 -4 -22 -12 -24 LAND (KM) 377 300 222 161 102 52 72 154 258 361 462 597 722 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.0 23.0 22.8 22.8 23.0 23.0 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.4 110.9 112.0 113.6 115.1 116.4 118.0 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 4 3 4 6 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 26 30 34 26 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 5. 2. -2. -6. -7. -9. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/12/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/12/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY