* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/13/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 57 57 57 55 52 47 43 39 37 36 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 57 57 57 55 52 47 43 39 37 36 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 56 58 59 59 58 55 51 46 41 37 34 SHEAR (KT) 11 3 4 2 5 4 11 4 12 3 7 6 1 SHEAR DIR 100 136 89 45 121 117 122 122 127 81 136 333 86 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.3 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.2 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 147 143 135 127 122 117 114 112 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 53 52 50 47 49 48 45 43 43 37 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 14 6 11 25 12 2 5 -7 -19 -5 -7 200 MB DIV 16 5 -17 -22 10 0 16 -4 -12 -7 -35 -42 -46 LAND (KM) 333 266 200 156 115 128 223 297 385 483 574 706 824 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.2 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.3 111.0 112.3 113.6 114.8 116.1 117.3 118.9 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 28 31 32 26 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 5. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/13/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/13/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY