* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/13/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 53 53 51 48 43 40 36 35 35 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 53 53 51 48 43 40 36 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 51 50 49 48 46 43 39 35 32 30 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 9 8 3 9 7 7 5 5 3 11 SHEAR DIR 83 88 92 107 157 138 156 130 169 121 215 311 268 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.4 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 149 143 136 126 117 113 111 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 49 50 49 50 47 42 42 39 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 11 14 23 10 3 6 0 -7 -15 -15 -14 200 MB DIV 14 -21 -24 4 8 -6 5 -5 -3 -22 -14 -26 -5 LAND (KM) 287 236 185 134 89 124 207 277 368 495 638 739 827 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.4 109.5 109.8 110.1 111.1 112.2 113.6 115.1 116.6 118.1 119.6 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 28 32 35 24 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -10. -14. -15. -15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/13/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/13/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY