* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/13/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 49 49 48 44 42 39 36 35 33 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 49 49 48 44 42 39 36 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 49 47 44 40 36 32 30 27 SHEAR (KT) 11 6 11 10 8 12 7 13 4 9 8 11 19 SHEAR DIR 104 125 153 170 178 147 151 149 160 164 244 214 247 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 27.9 26.8 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 150 149 142 131 122 116 113 110 109 106 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 50 53 52 52 50 48 46 45 40 37 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 10 19 28 15 10 0 -4 -9 -20 -11 -13 -13 200 MB DIV -25 -20 6 7 -2 14 -1 3 0 -20 -16 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 220 173 127 91 69 145 265 339 446 578 705 770 834 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.3 109.4 109.8 110.2 111.4 113.0 114.5 115.9 117.4 119.0 120.2 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 34 36 33 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/13/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/13/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY