* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/13/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 39 39 37 34 33 31 29 26 23 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 39 39 37 34 33 31 29 26 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 40 39 37 35 32 29 26 23 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 8 14 12 9 9 9 10 14 6 15 11 25 25 SHEAR DIR 138 138 166 170 158 153 146 188 174 210 221 228 238 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.3 26.1 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 151 147 136 123 114 111 108 107 105 101 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 50 47 46 43 39 37 36 30 32 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 15 20 9 0 4 1 -11 -16 -13 -12 -4 -27 200 MB DIV -25 1 1 -6 0 13 1 9 -2 -11 -2 5 -24 LAND (KM) 156 114 72 34 81 191 260 379 536 646 733 796 840 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.2 109.4 110.1 110.8 112.3 113.8 115.4 117.1 118.5 119.9 121.0 121.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 33 23 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/13/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/13/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY