* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/14/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 27 26 26 24 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 27 26 26 24 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 25 24 22 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 10 15 8 14 10 15 19 22 29 32 SHEAR DIR 148 180 164 138 144 159 161 207 199 232 220 235 232 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.0 26.7 25.6 25.0 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 148 143 130 119 112 108 108 108 103 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 5 7 7 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 46 45 44 39 36 30 29 25 23 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 9 -2 5 4 0 -13 -10 6 5 3 -23 200 MB DIV -2 1 -2 -2 14 -2 1 5 -9 -17 5 -3 -24 LAND (KM) 105 72 39 65 130 233 345 490 609 740 880 995 1110 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.9 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.4 109.8 110.6 111.3 113.0 114.8 116.6 118.2 120.0 121.8 123.3 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 28 17 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/14/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/14/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY