* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP192009 10/14/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 21 21 21 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 21 21 21 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 21 19 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 8 12 16 16 13 16 10 21 13 28 27 31 SHEAR DIR 170 150 142 152 158 158 194 192 213 226 228 239 234 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.1 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.5 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 144 137 123 115 111 108 105 103 95 87 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -54.4 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 47 48 44 42 42 39 34 31 28 23 21 17 15 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 13 -3 0 0 5 -8 -12 2 7 0 -17 1 200 MB DIV -10 -9 3 30 4 0 0 -3 -4 -13 10 -35 -34 LAND (KM) 54 15 34 108 169 245 354 485 609 681 744 822 827 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.0 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.5 24.2 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 109.9 110.4 111.3 112.1 113.7 115.1 116.6 118.2 119.5 120.7 122.2 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 16 9 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -19. -20. -21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192009 PATRICIA 10/14/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192009 PATRICIA 10/14/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY