* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 10/15/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 49 59 70 78 83 89 90 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 49 59 70 78 83 89 90 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 55 59 62 64 66 69 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 4 1 4 8 8 14 7 8 4 5 SHEAR DIR 7 6 38 3 277 226 231 207 228 217 196 173 181 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 168 167 168 166 167 165 161 156 152 150 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 9 11 8 10 9 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 70 71 68 69 74 73 69 66 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 19 21 24 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 18 19 23 21 22 22 35 43 49 81 126 200 MB DIV 24 23 40 41 39 71 85 106 78 75 65 77 87 LAND (KM) 535 488 439 417 395 388 406 443 496 583 726 740 846 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.5 17.0 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.2 96.9 97.5 98.1 99.7 101.5 103.7 106.4 109.0 111.4 113.3 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 9 10 13 13 13 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 48 48 56 64 59 53 69 58 44 28 41 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 5. 14. 23. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 24. 25. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 24. 34. 45. 53. 58. 64. 65. 68. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 10/15/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 10/15/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED