* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202009 10/15/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 55 68 82 94 101 105 111 112 111 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 55 68 82 94 101 105 111 112 111 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 46 60 73 84 89 92 93 93 94 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 6 2 3 3 8 3 6 1 1 7 SHEAR DIR 34 31 48 103 77 269 230 228 222 192 306 186 99 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 167 167 168 166 167 166 162 157 152 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 70 69 69 71 74 70 69 61 58 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 11 12 13 16 19 22 25 28 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 15 21 28 33 39 27 23 36 48 65 74 121 156 200 MB DIV 37 55 55 61 64 61 97 84 76 74 53 78 79 LAND (KM) 424 398 374 360 358 387 423 453 530 679 697 755 803 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.3 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.4 98.1 98.8 99.5 101.3 103.3 105.7 108.3 110.7 112.8 114.1 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 7 8 10 11 13 13 12 8 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 47 54 66 71 60 53 70 65 39 16 36 41 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 30. 30. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 25. 38. 52. 64. 71. 75. 81. 82. 81. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 TWENTY 10/15/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 88% is 7.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 37% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 TWENTY 10/15/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY