* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202009 10/16/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 54 63 70 81 92 100 106 109 110 110 104 V (KT) LAND 40 47 54 63 70 81 92 100 106 109 110 110 104 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 53 60 68 80 88 90 90 90 88 86 82 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 5 0 8 6 8 3 3 9 15 17 SHEAR DIR 15 16 53 56 240 260 206 237 175 229 158 166 136 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 167 167 166 166 167 165 160 156 151 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 11 9 10 9 10 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 71 73 72 75 76 74 72 65 61 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 15 18 21 24 28 29 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 28 34 23 14 18 35 43 54 84 111 125 200 MB DIV 62 50 52 67 69 85 93 72 85 79 98 117 118 LAND (KM) 392 378 365 376 394 423 462 536 621 692 618 534 471 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.6 18.6 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.1 98.8 99.6 100.3 102.1 104.3 106.6 109.0 110.7 111.8 112.3 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 10 11 12 11 9 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 65 71 60 53 50 68 59 48 25 22 28 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 22. 28. 31. 34. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 23. 30. 41. 52. 60. 66. 69. 70. 70. 64. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 TWENTY 10/16/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 8.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 82% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 72% is 13.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 TWENTY 10/16/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY