* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/16/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 65 73 78 88 96 102 105 105 106 103 95 V (KT) LAND 50 57 65 73 78 88 96 102 105 105 106 103 95 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 66 74 82 92 96 94 91 86 82 77 71 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 9 2 4 8 8 8 11 11 17 19 21 SHEAR DIR 359 24 13 19 268 265 241 251 231 221 187 177 180 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.4 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 166 167 167 166 162 159 154 147 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 11 12 11 10 10 8 9 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 73 71 71 75 73 74 68 66 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 15 17 20 23 25 27 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 19 25 31 22 16 14 17 31 41 51 84 99 132 200 MB DIV 59 66 69 60 36 75 62 64 67 103 93 112 107 LAND (KM) 392 378 375 382 390 434 496 559 626 656 554 467 370 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.1 16.0 17.1 18.4 19.4 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.7 99.4 100.2 100.9 103.0 105.6 107.8 109.7 111.2 112.3 112.5 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 11 10 9 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 61 70 63 53 50 58 68 45 47 14 28 23 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 30. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 28. 38. 46. 52. 55. 55. 56. 53. 45. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/16/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 80% is 6.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 69% is 8.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 64% is 12.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/16/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY