* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 76 82 87 96 102 105 106 104 102 96 89 V (KT) LAND 60 68 76 82 87 96 102 105 106 104 102 96 89 V (KT) LGE mod 60 69 77 85 91 98 98 94 89 84 79 73 68 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 3 6 8 6 8 11 11 22 19 22 SHEAR DIR 26 22 7 303 268 244 252 209 231 174 190 160 188 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 166 166 167 165 160 156 151 146 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -50.8 -51.3 -50.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 72 71 71 74 73 72 71 69 67 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 17 20 21 25 26 28 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 20 15 11 11 32 36 50 68 85 110 132 200 MB DIV 56 63 65 51 55 76 49 81 88 91 115 148 96 LAND (KM) 392 393 398 408 417 469 531 598 697 635 525 442 393 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.7 100.4 101.3 102.2 104.5 106.9 109.1 110.9 112.0 112.1 112.4 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 12 12 10 8 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 68 59 52 52 50 68 53 46 15 31 27 21 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 15. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 14. 19. 22. 26. 27. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 22. 27. 36. 42. 45. 46. 44. 42. 37. 29. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 84% is 7.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 74% is 9.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 70% is 13.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED