* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 10/16/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 38 42 44 43 43 42 40 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 38 42 44 43 43 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 31 32 32 30 28 26 SHEAR (KT) 13 7 7 11 9 15 11 15 15 21 26 24 26 SHEAR DIR 95 105 21 34 5 18 330 316 285 279 305 308 303 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 149 149 148 148 145 142 135 131 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 60 60 60 59 55 59 60 55 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 46 64 72 82 80 71 57 62 41 19 -4 -34 200 MB DIV 33 10 11 4 19 36 38 44 51 74 38 38 31 LAND (KM) 2181 2061 1943 1824 1706 1463 1198 899 596 322 91 86 22 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.9 15.3 16.8 18.1 19.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.4 138.6 139.8 141.0 143.4 146.0 148.7 151.3 153.5 155.4 156.9 157.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 29 11 18 14 15 20 15 17 13 8 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 380 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 24. 23. 23. 22. 20. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 10/16/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 10/16/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY