* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 79 86 92 97 104 108 111 111 107 107 101 93 V (KT) LAND 70 79 86 92 97 104 108 111 111 107 107 101 93 V (KT) LGE mod 70 79 86 92 96 99 95 91 87 85 83 80 76 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 6 8 11 7 9 9 10 8 19 12 SHEAR DIR 18 8 313 258 246 242 233 232 213 170 150 158 167 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 166 167 167 162 159 155 152 148 145 141 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 10 10 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 72 69 78 76 76 72 71 67 60 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 17 19 22 26 28 29 30 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 39 28 22 16 17 21 32 44 59 76 98 117 138 200 MB DIV 86 83 63 59 59 59 74 84 116 94 116 115 91 LAND (KM) 393 408 423 455 488 534 602 692 802 751 666 591 523 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.6 18.5 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.4 101.2 102.3 103.3 105.6 107.9 109.9 111.6 112.6 113.0 113.2 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 10 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 53 51 43 26 66 35 50 38 38 35 31 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 28. 28. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 22. 27. 34. 38. 41. 41. 37. 37. 31. 23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 6.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 71% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 66% is 12.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY