* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 10/16/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 55 60 62 60 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 55 60 62 60 58 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 44 52 59 62 61 58 54 50 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 10 11 11 9 10 7 12 14 18 23 33 SHEAR DIR 87 59 59 69 52 38 327 314 300 295 303 275 267 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.8 27.0 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 150 150 150 149 146 141 133 134 134 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 66 63 64 65 62 60 58 51 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 60 66 73 81 75 70 59 65 34 4 -20 -35 200 MB DIV 22 25 28 31 36 62 51 48 67 53 37 41 61 LAND (KM) 2028 1900 1776 1657 1540 1288 1011 710 408 158 190 103 33 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.8 12.7 14.1 15.7 17.5 19.2 20.9 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 139.4 140.7 142.0 143.2 145.8 148.5 151.2 153.7 155.9 157.8 159.1 159.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 12 12 14 14 15 14 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 14 14 34 20 40 15 19 18 8 13 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 377 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 30. 35. 37. 35. 33. 31. 27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 10/16/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 10/16/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY