* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 95 102 108 112 117 119 116 110 105 98 95 83 V (KT) LAND 85 95 102 108 112 117 119 116 110 105 98 95 83 V (KT) LGE mod 85 94 101 104 105 103 97 92 88 83 78 72 67 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 7 8 9 7 11 11 22 21 15 10 SHEAR DIR 7 303 248 248 239 239 206 217 181 168 158 157 173 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 167 167 164 160 156 152 148 142 139 134 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -50.7 -51.6 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 73 76 76 75 75 69 65 54 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 17 18 21 25 27 28 30 30 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 11 9 9 23 32 41 62 79 106 132 129 200 MB DIV 92 66 60 63 66 50 68 75 105 132 147 93 26 LAND (KM) 393 410 427 458 469 546 606 692 680 607 506 431 359 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.3 20.2 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.4 102.2 103.4 104.5 107.0 109.0 110.7 112.1 112.8 113.0 113.0 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 54 54 67 53 45 25 33 33 23 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 19. 21. 24. 26. 30. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 17. 23. 27. 32. 34. 31. 25. 20. 13. 10. -2. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 84% is 7.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 80% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 79% is 15.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED