* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 10/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 55 60 61 60 58 55 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 55 60 61 60 58 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 43 51 57 59 58 55 52 49 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 11 11 10 11 10 14 18 21 31 34 SHEAR DIR 53 67 74 65 45 26 349 297 312 309 309 294 289 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 150 150 148 144 137 131 132 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 64 65 63 64 66 61 64 58 52 45 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 71 78 81 78 58 58 46 22 6 -9 -24 200 MB DIV 26 25 17 34 53 52 64 42 69 38 20 25 0 LAND (KM) 1967 1848 1730 1610 1492 1256 956 662 376 137 83 55 3 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.9 13.1 14.7 16.4 17.8 19.3 20.8 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 138.7 140.0 141.2 142.4 143.6 146.1 148.8 151.1 153.2 155.0 156.7 157.8 158.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 12 11 10 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 22 33 16 46 15 19 14 8 9 11 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 30. 35. 36. 35. 33. 30. 26. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 10/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 10/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY