* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962009 10/17/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 36 45 52 57 60 60 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 36 45 52 57 60 60 59 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 37 44 50 54 54 54 53 52 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 5 5 5 7 5 6 8 12 18 16 SHEAR DIR 73 88 72 64 49 344 335 334 320 309 281 287 284 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 150 150 147 142 135 134 135 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 63 66 64 62 59 59 54 48 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 61 74 81 88 70 63 56 28 -2 -13 -44 -24 200 MB DIV 24 22 53 66 50 57 43 37 38 30 41 5 -2 LAND (KM) 1779 1652 1527 1405 1288 1037 737 438 239 234 177 88 55 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.4 13.7 15.3 16.8 18.4 20.0 21.1 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.9 143.2 144.5 145.8 148.5 151.3 153.9 156.1 158.0 159.2 159.5 159.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 13 11 8 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 33 15 18 40 17 20 28 12 15 17 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 20. 27. 32. 35. 35. 34. 33. 31. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962009 INVEST 10/17/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962009 INVEST 10/17/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY