* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/17/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 104 110 113 116 116 112 104 97 90 80 72 V (KT) LAND 90 98 104 110 113 116 116 112 104 97 90 80 72 V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 100 102 103 99 94 89 83 77 70 64 58 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 10 13 12 15 14 22 24 25 20 19 SHEAR DIR 270 261 240 219 235 246 225 227 189 176 167 174 214 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 167 167 166 162 157 150 145 141 139 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 75 75 74 74 68 68 58 54 47 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 17 18 21 25 27 27 29 30 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 14 12 18 24 36 44 82 91 121 131 131 200 MB DIV 77 59 68 57 47 62 77 87 85 124 115 121 69 LAND (KM) 382 405 430 438 471 538 643 603 559 497 432 315 183 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.7 16.8 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.1 21.4 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.5 103.6 104.8 106.0 108.3 110.5 112.0 112.8 113.0 112.9 112.6 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 7 5 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 64 67 71 64 40 13 20 29 22 9 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 18. 19. 22. 26. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 23. 26. 26. 22. 14. 7. 0. -10. -18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/17/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 60% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 56% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/17/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY