* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962009 10/17/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 22 26 32 39 43 46 45 44 43 44 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 22 26 32 39 43 46 45 44 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 19 19 22 25 28 29 29 28 27 30 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 4 4 8 7 14 13 17 26 22 12 SHEAR DIR 73 67 37 6 41 341 319 329 323 319 303 310 325 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 150 150 148 145 138 132 133 132 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 59 62 63 61 59 63 56 56 50 48 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 79 84 88 81 62 48 37 21 -10 -37 -55 -39 200 MB DIV 23 54 70 47 62 82 36 51 56 10 17 -12 -33 LAND (KM) 1724 1599 1477 1353 1233 958 663 374 167 128 100 0 23 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 13.0 14.4 16.0 17.4 18.9 20.4 21.3 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.2 142.5 143.7 145.0 146.3 148.9 151.5 153.8 155.5 157.1 157.8 157.9 158.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 12 11 9 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 32 15 27 47 15 19 16 8 9 12 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 26. 25. 24. 23. 24. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962009 INVEST 10/17/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962009 INVEST 10/17/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY