* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/17/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 135 140 142 141 134 124 113 99 88 75 61 51 V (KT) LAND 125 135 140 142 141 134 124 113 99 88 75 61 51 V (KT) LGE mod 125 133 133 129 124 113 102 94 86 79 71 64 57 SHEAR (KT) 4 8 12 12 10 11 12 17 22 20 23 29 32 SHEAR DIR 242 213 234 227 237 251 239 191 180 184 208 237 242 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.1 28.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 165 163 160 157 150 145 141 138 134 145 167 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 76 76 73 68 65 58 47 36 37 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 20 21 23 24 25 25 26 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 19 19 21 30 39 69 86 118 119 102 72 200 MB DIV 81 77 64 60 78 78 77 77 131 113 62 28 53 LAND (KM) 395 428 479 511 559 651 628 548 452 356 259 62 59 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.8 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.3 23.8 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.9 105.2 106.4 107.6 108.7 110.6 112.1 112.6 112.7 112.7 112.7 111.6 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 5 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 67 67 58 43 40 13 28 28 19 5 0 17 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -24. -32. -39. -45. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 15. 14. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 15. 17. 16. 9. -1. -12. -26. -37. -50. -64. -74. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/17/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/17/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY