* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962009 10/18/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 62 71 75 79 81 83 82 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 52 62 71 75 79 81 83 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 56 66 75 80 83 84 SHEAR (KT) 20 17 17 19 22 17 17 15 16 12 9 1 4 SHEAR DIR 81 87 72 54 62 68 59 59 46 47 69 32 328 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 155 154 152 151 147 141 137 136 138 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 67 67 69 67 67 60 57 52 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 103 106 111 101 75 49 29 10 -6 -22 -18 -13 200 MB DIV 61 81 90 80 86 83 39 27 30 5 22 -9 4 LAND (KM) 1164 1125 1097 1058 1034 1017 1023 1035 1029 926 845 832 879 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.1 11.0 12.2 13.5 14.8 15.6 15.8 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 151.5 152.6 153.7 154.9 156.0 158.2 160.5 162.4 163.8 164.3 164.2 164.3 164.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 8 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 64 71 70 58 25 59 37 69 60 60 55 51 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 37. 46. 50. 54. 56. 58. 57. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962009 INVEST 10/18/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962009 INVEST 10/18/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY