* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/18/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 157 159 158 153 140 125 111 98 83 72 64 54 V (KT) LAND 150 157 159 158 153 140 125 111 98 83 72 62 41 V (KT) LGE mod 150 151 145 137 129 115 104 94 87 79 74 67 47 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 9 10 8 13 17 22 21 22 29 40 SHEAR DIR 228 238 223 224 242 230 205 176 160 185 214 230 243 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.7 30.2 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 163 160 159 152 147 144 141 141 151 167 170 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -50.6 -51.7 -50.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 78 78 76 75 67 70 66 58 50 44 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 20 22 23 24 25 26 28 26 25 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 26 28 25 27 48 72 100 128 114 83 52 200 MB DIV 80 70 71 86 95 70 98 114 139 112 98 70 58 LAND (KM) 432 481 525 559 614 636 558 460 331 188 37 99 -116 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.5 21.8 23.0 24.5 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.5 107.7 108.8 109.8 111.3 111.9 112.0 111.9 111.4 110.5 109.2 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 7 5 6 7 7 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 66 57 42 39 25 13 17 22 16 17 19 51 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -34. -46. -55. -64. -70. -73. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 13. 11. 5. 0. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 15. 14. 14. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 8. 3. -10. -25. -39. -52. -67. -78. -86. -96. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/18/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/18/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY