* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962009 10/18/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 60 68 72 72 73 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 60 68 72 72 73 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 58 64 67 67 69 SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 19 14 13 10 10 7 10 5 7 6 SHEAR DIR 39 38 37 45 68 50 49 26 29 350 356 309 332 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 156 156 155 152 148 144 140 136 136 138 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 67 68 67 69 63 57 52 51 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 102 105 97 91 75 53 42 25 5 -27 -29 -35 -28 200 MB DIV 107 90 88 85 99 50 36 21 32 -39 18 12 0 LAND (KM) 1176 1105 1047 977 922 857 855 880 816 748 710 754 847 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.2 10.6 11.6 12.8 14.2 15.6 16.6 17.2 17.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 151.0 152.3 153.5 154.7 155.9 158.2 160.5 162.4 163.7 164.1 164.3 165.1 166.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 12 13 13 13 12 10 7 4 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 64 63 64 55 27 28 31 52 50 30 25 47 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 35. 43. 47. 47. 48. 46. 46. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962009 INVEST 10/18/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962009 INVEST 10/18/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY