* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/18/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 155 160 160 156 151 134 118 102 92 74 59 47 22 V (KT) LAND 155 160 160 156 151 134 118 102 92 74 60 41 31 V (KT) LGE mod 155 155 147 138 130 115 103 94 86 80 73 51 34 SHEAR (KT) 4 9 9 9 8 10 16 19 18 25 30 36 62 SHEAR DIR 284 233 220 237 238 244 208 191 181 229 232 231 249 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.5 30.1 30.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 160 158 155 150 145 142 142 149 167 169 158 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 74 74 69 66 66 60 48 45 44 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 21 22 24 24 25 24 27 22 18 16 5 850 MB ENV VOR 29 30 32 33 38 36 62 69 115 104 96 55 10 200 MB DIV 67 79 103 111 92 80 77 127 143 88 79 60 36 LAND (KM) 493 519 567 619 677 600 496 386 254 84 78 -126 -448 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.9 22.3 24.3 26.0 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.8 108.9 109.9 110.9 111.9 111.9 111.7 111.2 110.5 109.3 107.3 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 8 6 5 6 7 10 12 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 56 41 39 23 13 19 23 17 21 23 49 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -40. -52. -62. -70. -74. -77. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -10. -16. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 13. 11. 4. -1. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 13. 7. 0. -2. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 1. -4. -21. -37. -53. -63. -81. -96.-108.-133. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/18/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/18/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY