* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP962009 10/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 51 62 69 71 72 73 72 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 51 62 69 71 72 73 72 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 58 64 68 70 72 SHEAR (KT) 12 18 16 14 16 14 15 10 10 8 5 5 6 SHEAR DIR 44 33 48 71 72 64 62 43 58 51 354 343 316 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 156 155 152 149 144 140 139 139 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 67 67 70 67 61 54 53 49 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 104 98 93 82 67 43 38 17 -5 -23 -24 -34 -41 200 MB DIV 112 83 81 100 85 54 40 20 0 -15 7 15 8 LAND (KM) 1152 1080 1025 979 951 938 978 963 908 885 910 992 1101 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.6 12.8 14.3 15.6 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 152.1 153.5 154.8 156.1 157.3 160.0 162.3 164.1 165.2 165.8 166.6 167.8 169.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 13 13 14 13 12 10 6 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 69 68 56 25 25 34 63 60 49 28 28 45 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 26. 37. 44. 46. 47. 48. 47. 46. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP962009 INVEST 10/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP962009 INVEST 10/18/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY