* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/18/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 155 152 149 145 140 126 112 99 87 72 55 31 DIS V (KT) LAND 155 152 149 145 140 126 112 99 87 72 49 34 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 155 148 139 130 122 108 98 90 83 75 62 38 30 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 11 6 15 19 21 28 35 41 53 79 SHEAR DIR 231 221 226 236 231 215 198 183 208 234 246 226 250 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.9 28.5 29.7 30.6 29.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 158 155 151 147 142 142 149 162 172 161 151 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -50.9 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 2 4 0 700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 72 67 66 63 52 42 45 49 57 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 22 23 23 23 24 24 24 22 16 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 32 31 33 27 38 52 86 101 89 72 49 12 200 MB DIV 87 110 111 106 96 66 98 144 116 57 45 87 25 LAND (KM) 513 544 595 623 602 513 381 244 84 28 -29 -348 -491 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.6 19.9 21.0 22.3 23.7 25.5 27.3 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.8 109.8 110.5 111.2 111.8 111.8 111.2 110.5 109.4 108.1 105.6 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 8 10 12 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 41 35 15 12 12 21 18 21 23 24 54 0 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -29. -42. -54. -63. -70. -73. -77. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -19. -29. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 4. -4. -14. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -29. -43. -56. -68. -83.-100.-124.-142. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/18/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/18/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED