* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032009 10/18/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 58 64 66 69 71 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 58 64 66 69 71 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 50 54 58 62 66 SHEAR (KT) 22 26 28 24 21 18 21 16 16 5 4 4 4 SHEAR DIR 57 58 62 71 67 60 57 58 56 46 348 339 286 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 155 154 152 149 143 139 139 141 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 70 70 72 68 66 58 56 50 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 101 89 71 54 29 15 3 -17 -22 -28 -34 -50 200 MB DIV 107 103 114 99 69 53 11 18 16 -13 -9 6 -13 LAND (KM) 1188 1128 1079 1034 1005 980 1010 964 926 946 1038 1169 1331 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.8 10.3 11.7 13.2 14.7 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 154.1 155.2 156.2 157.4 158.5 160.9 163.1 164.8 165.7 166.5 167.8 169.5 171.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 12 9 6 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 79 67 38 21 66 34 59 43 28 29 30 71 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 39. 41. 44. 46. 47. 47. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 THREE 10/18/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 THREE 10/18/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY