* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/18/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 131 124 120 115 108 101 92 81 73 48 36 24 V (KT) LAND 140 131 124 120 115 108 101 92 80 71 41 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 140 130 121 114 108 97 89 83 75 74 42 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 12 9 12 13 20 26 32 41 43 62 71 SHEAR DIR 243 249 233 226 214 215 184 203 234 235 223 242 241 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 28.4 29.7 30.6 30.2 29.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 152 149 145 143 148 161 171 167 158 152 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 67 68 65 55 44 47 42 49 56 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 24 24 25 26 25 22 22 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 35 29 37 57 72 104 95 105 72 50 25 200 MB DIV 118 129 95 87 79 67 129 120 56 33 66 7 -18 LAND (KM) 561 595 632 593 545 451 274 90 27 7 -165 -356 -533 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.2 20.8 22.3 23.8 25.0 26.1 27.3 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.8 110.6 111.1 111.5 111.8 111.4 110.6 109.5 108.2 106.9 105.5 104.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 14 13 14 13 10 14 23 26 25 7 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -32. -42. -48. -53. -57. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -18. -24. -35. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 2. 1. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -20. -25. -32. -39. -48. -59. -67. -92.-104.-116. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/18/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/18/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY