* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032009 10/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 49 56 70 79 85 87 86 85 83 79 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 49 56 70 79 85 87 86 85 83 79 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 54 66 77 85 88 89 88 85 SHEAR (KT) 20 20 16 14 13 11 14 9 10 4 3 9 11 SHEAR DIR 54 55 74 72 69 66 58 57 50 323 280 279 298 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 155 154 151 147 142 141 141 141 142 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 68 67 64 62 51 44 43 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 94 85 73 61 54 45 22 10 -4 -6 -18 -31 -44 200 MB DIV 86 103 89 75 70 52 15 10 16 -1 26 21 15 LAND (KM) 1161 1115 1085 1078 1097 1163 1132 1119 1118 1121 1102 1146 1256 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.1 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.7 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 156.7 157.9 159.0 160.5 161.9 164.3 165.6 166.9 168.1 168.9 169.2 170.1 171.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 16 15 11 8 8 7 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 68 45 77 76 72 73 62 68 53 65 69 63 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 400 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 13. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 26. 40. 49. 55. 57. 56. 55. 53. 49. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 THREE 10/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 THREE 10/19/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY