* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 118 109 102 97 89 83 76 71 47 30 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 130 118 109 102 97 89 83 68 69 41 31 28 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 130 118 109 101 95 85 79 74 79 45 32 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 9 14 13 17 13 19 26 33 38 46 56 71 63 SHEAR DIR 267 253 251 245 218 208 192 216 232 232 240 248 255 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 150 148 144 142 145 159 171 167 161 156 153 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.9 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 3 4 0 3 700-500 MB RH 76 72 68 66 66 63 52 41 44 44 44 38 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 21 20 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 19 30 40 51 83 98 96 60 32 3 -65 200 MB DIV 109 81 80 76 85 78 126 89 39 57 13 -42 -61 LAND (KM) 590 616 571 514 461 357 162 -17 12 -146 -269 -416 -510 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.1 21.7 23.3 24.9 25.9 26.4 27.2 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.6 111.3 111.6 111.8 111.7 110.9 109.7 108.2 107.0 105.9 104.7 103.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 7 9 10 9 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 15 12 10 7 22 10 35 10 0 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -9. -17. -27. -34. -38. -43. -47. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -25. -34. -46. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -11. -11. -7. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -18. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -21. -28. -33. -41. -47. -54. -59. -83.-100.-112.-120. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/19/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY