* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032009 10/19/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 54 66 76 82 84 84 84 81 77 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 54 66 76 82 84 84 84 81 77 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 53 63 72 80 86 89 89 87 SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 18 16 18 12 10 3 7 2 5 7 SHEAR DIR 49 52 47 48 50 59 67 73 69 19 324 313 305 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 155 155 149 144 142 142 141 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 67 70 70 70 67 65 59 53 43 43 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 88 80 73 60 51 35 14 2 -8 -16 -38 -48 -53 200 MB DIV 94 83 69 67 75 43 23 4 -21 -2 9 5 -2 LAND (KM) 1167 1151 1155 1160 1182 1168 1153 1148 1154 1207 1288 1390 1507 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.3 9.8 10.6 11.3 12.9 14.1 15.4 16.6 17.3 17.6 18.2 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 158.2 159.5 160.8 162.1 163.4 165.4 166.9 168.2 169.2 170.2 171.2 172.5 173.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 11 9 8 7 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 70 79 75 75 84 70 70 68 71 70 72 28 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 25. 36. 46. 52. 54. 54. 54. 51. 47. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 THREE 10/19/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.2/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 THREE 10/19/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY