* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/19/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 105 97 92 89 81 74 68 48 33 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 105 97 92 89 81 74 68 43 32 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 104 95 89 83 75 70 69 47 33 29 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 11 14 19 28 38 49 52 63 67 56 SHEAR DIR 255 243 243 222 231 210 210 222 238 239 244 248 254 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.9 30.3 30.3 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 148 146 144 143 154 168 167 160 159 157 155 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 68 66 57 51 43 44 43 39 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 22 23 22 20 20 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 14 22 33 49 52 108 106 76 30 8 -48 -66 200 MB DIV 82 74 71 93 77 91 103 86 12 36 -16 -59 -38 LAND (KM) 626 580 540 480 421 278 45 82 -139 -246 -265 -331 -339 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.7 22.5 24.1 25.6 26.3 26.5 26.9 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.2 111.7 111.8 111.8 111.3 109.9 108.4 106.9 106.1 106.0 105.5 105.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 9 11 11 8 3 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 13 11 8 14 36 52 11 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -17. -22. -25. -29. -33. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -29. -39. -50. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -18. -22. -23. -22. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -23. -26. -34. -41. -47. -67. -82. -97.-109.-113. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/19/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/19/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY