* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 52 58 70 78 82 82 82 79 77 72 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 52 58 70 78 82 82 82 79 77 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 49 59 70 79 85 86 86 83 80 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 16 14 13 9 2 7 7 8 11 11 SHEAR DIR 56 54 49 46 59 68 47 18 331 347 300 296 286 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 152 149 144 142 142 143 142 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 72 69 64 60 55 51 50 46 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 75 66 57 49 37 15 1 -21 -27 -25 -42 -55 -78 200 MB DIV 97 88 92 82 46 35 15 4 -36 15 35 8 -9 LAND (KM) 1135 1120 1130 1123 1133 1074 1054 1068 1115 1173 1279 1384 1460 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.9 10.6 11.5 12.3 13.9 15.4 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.8 19.3 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 158.9 160.3 161.7 162.8 163.8 165.4 167.0 168.0 168.9 170.0 171.6 172.8 173.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 13 12 11 9 6 6 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 76 76 74 79 73 45 32 31 66 70 26 24 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 35. 43. 47. 47. 47. 44. 42. 37. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY