* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 87 78 71 67 64 58 49 30 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 87 78 71 67 64 58 49 33 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 88 80 74 69 62 59 58 37 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 19 18 9 13 18 20 30 40 50 61 77 52 37 SHEAR DIR 264 258 234 240 235 202 220 230 236 249 255 278 296 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 28.9 30.0 29.4 28.1 27.3 26.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 141 139 138 140 154 165 159 145 137 128 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -52.3 -52.2 -53.5 -55.7 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 2 3 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 66 62 53 47 43 43 43 39 25 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 22 22 22 23 20 15 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 26 46 44 75 100 106 46 -3 -15 -55 -107 200 MB DIV 73 77 94 74 83 110 103 32 26 -6 -46 -90 -62 LAND (KM) 604 556 515 453 391 200 51 15 -230 -446 -569 -487 -549 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.3 19.8 21.3 22.8 24.4 26.0 27.7 29.1 30.1 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.7 112.1 112.0 111.8 110.9 109.3 107.8 106.1 104.7 102.9 101.5 101.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 10 10 11 11 10 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 13 14 9 7 22 40 54 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -23. -32. -45. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -14. -13. -11. -8. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 3. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -9. -24. -27. -31. -29. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -22. -29. -33. -36. -42. -51. -70. -84.-101.-110.-112. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY