* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/19/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 63 69 73 77 76 74 71 67 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 63 69 73 77 76 74 71 67 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 46 53 60 67 73 78 80 79 77 SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 17 18 8 9 4 1 2 8 3 10 SHEAR DIR 63 54 55 51 66 79 44 97 24 300 320 289 285 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 150 147 144 143 142 144 143 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 72 70 66 58 52 46 43 39 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 62 49 40 28 24 21 4 -2 -12 -21 -17 -37 -44 200 MB DIV 93 96 100 76 55 46 11 -22 -2 42 -4 10 17 LAND (KM) 1027 1015 1024 1032 1055 1035 1063 1118 1170 1245 1370 1463 1524 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.5 13.2 14.6 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.9 19.1 19.8 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 159.1 160.4 161.6 162.7 163.7 165.8 167.6 168.8 169.7 170.9 172.6 173.7 174.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 12 9 6 6 9 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 77 49 58 66 63 31 32 58 70 67 21 42 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 4. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 34. 38. 42. 41. 39. 36. 32. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/19/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/19/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY