* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/19/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 77 67 59 54 46 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 77 67 59 54 46 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 79 71 65 61 55 52 40 31 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 11 15 19 15 26 36 49 58 71 72 63 38 SHEAR DIR 263 237 246 226 210 212 223 237 245 245 251 269 284 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 28.2 29.8 29.9 29.2 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 139 139 147 163 164 156 147 139 135 131 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -54.0 -55.7 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 4 3 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 62 58 47 42 38 41 37 32 26 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 21 21 18 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 40 37 49 96 102 79 17 -3 -38 -59 -96 200 MB DIV 68 92 80 93 108 97 88 -2 18 -29 -51 -90 -77 LAND (KM) 545 497 451 373 296 100 104 -104 -297 -482 -522 -444 -447 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.4 22.0 23.7 25.0 26.1 27.3 28.1 28.7 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.7 111.8 111.4 111.0 110.0 108.3 106.8 105.3 104.0 102.6 101.7 101.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 10 10 9 8 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 10 9 20 33 49 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -20. -28. -39. -51. -62. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -16. -26. -26. -28. -26. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -4. -9. -12. -14. -16. -13. -10. -6. -1. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -23. -31. -36. -44. -47. -61. -76. -85. -97.-105.-108. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/19/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/19/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY