* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/20/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 46 51 60 66 70 72 70 66 64 62 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 46 51 60 66 70 72 70 66 64 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 46 53 60 67 72 74 73 73 SHEAR (KT) 14 11 16 15 13 8 7 4 3 12 10 9 6 SHEAR DIR 34 51 42 56 61 45 42 43 324 296 309 320 304 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 147 143 141 141 142 141 141 142 142 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 70 68 62 59 50 46 40 40 40 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 12 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 60 44 28 24 28 17 0 -4 -5 -7 -8 -28 -31 200 MB DIV 104 88 64 61 79 34 13 -6 17 -7 -30 -9 21 LAND (KM) 1008 995 1001 1019 1003 970 948 962 1020 1075 1105 1229 1423 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.2 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 160.4 161.5 162.6 163.8 165.0 166.2 166.8 167.6 168.6 169.5 170.1 171.5 173.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 11 7 5 6 6 5 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 37 62 60 31 28 29 59 65 61 51 21 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 31. 35. 37. 35. 31. 29. 27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/20/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/20/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY