* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICK EP202009 10/20/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 53 45 40 38 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 53 45 40 38 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 53 46 41 37 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 15 21 21 17 17 28 38 49 54 66 73 68 39 SHEAR DIR 243 247 238 214 210 226 225 237 242 250 243 254 266 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 29.1 30.0 29.8 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 139 142 156 165 161 155 150 146 143 139 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.8 -55.5 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 9 3 5 1 3 0 2 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 58 52 42 44 39 34 29 34 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 22 21 22 20 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 36 38 47 65 88 94 46 6 -23 -47 -65 -42 200 MB DIV 66 54 77 102 129 77 10 13 -13 -7 -31 -58 0 LAND (KM) 492 435 377 285 195 63 -22 -163 -252 -349 -410 -439 -496 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.5 21.2 22.8 24.3 25.2 25.9 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 111.7 111.5 111.0 110.5 109.1 107.2 106.2 105.7 105.1 104.7 104.7 104.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 9 11 9 5 4 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 19 24 40 52 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -11. -18. -26. -37. -48. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -17. -16. -14. -12. -9. -9. -9. -6. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 8. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -13. -21. -22. -22. -23. -22. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -20. -25. -27. -31. -43. -55. -59. -67. -78. -84. -82. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202009 RICK 10/20/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202009 RICK 10/20/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY