* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 10/20/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 39 49 47 51 55 64 57 34 24 23 27 32 38 SHEAR DIR 262 263 268 273 271 279 274 294 297 286 260 253 256 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 134 134 132 133 131 132 132 131 129 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 130 128 127 124 124 120 119 119 118 115 113 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -55.4 -55.6 -56.1 -56.3 -56.7 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 55 54 57 58 57 53 52 52 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -31 -35 -36 -39 -47 -56 -64 -53 -44 -50 -59 -65 200 MB DIV 0 6 0 -11 2 10 -18 33 -17 5 -24 46 -23 LAND (KM) 1805 1821 1841 1877 1861 1850 1881 1968 2034 2061 2101 2164 2226 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.1 16.3 17.6 18.6 19.4 20.4 21.5 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 35.8 36.5 37.1 37.7 38.6 39.4 39.7 40.0 40.6 41.3 41.9 42.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 6 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 12 13 12 14 17 19 20 22 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -3. -11. -24. -37. -43. -47. -47. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -25. -35. -35. -36. -33. -29. -27. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 10/20/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 10/20/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY