* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/20/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 57 64 70 72 69 66 62 59 57 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 57 64 70 72 69 66 62 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 59 65 70 74 74 73 71 69 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 12 15 9 9 3 6 15 15 9 10 9 SHEAR DIR 46 46 37 45 54 58 30 272 293 306 298 323 334 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 147 145 142 141 141 140 138 139 140 141 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 72 70 67 64 53 47 45 41 37 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 24 11 2 3 0 -16 -17 -3 -8 -6 -39 -39 200 MB DIV 89 59 47 49 67 24 8 15 -8 -24 -35 -16 10 LAND (KM) 1012 1020 1023 995 983 962 912 915 947 998 1071 1186 1339 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 16.4 17.5 18.4 19.2 19.7 20.0 20.8 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 161.7 162.8 163.9 164.9 165.8 166.8 167.1 167.7 168.4 169.1 169.9 171.2 172.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 7 5 5 5 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 63 61 38 28 29 39 63 53 46 44 35 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 30. 32. 29. 26. 22. 19. 17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/20/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/20/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY