* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 10/20/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 41 45 52 55 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 15 13 10 10 10 6 3 8 13 14 SHEAR DIR 274 265 251 249 267 260 297 272 301 152 206 216 225 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 148 149 151 153 154 155 159 160 158 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 141 141 141 141 141 142 142 144 149 151 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 8 8 10 9 11 10 11 7 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 76 76 72 69 60 59 59 59 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 55 55 56 60 64 52 55 49 54 54 48 65 200 MB DIV 99 81 65 39 33 38 40 34 10 30 23 54 37 LAND (KM) 197 135 75 21 -32 -120 -162 -145 -140 -155 -102 -55 24 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.3 82.8 83.3 83.8 84.6 85.3 85.8 86.2 86.9 87.7 88.7 89.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 33 6 4 53 0 0 0 0 33 33 28 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 27. 30. 32. 31. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 10/20/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 10/20/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY