* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NEKI CP032009 10/20/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 70 75 79 84 86 81 74 67 62 56 51 V (KT) LAND 55 63 70 75 79 84 86 81 74 67 62 56 51 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 70 76 80 84 85 85 81 76 71 68 66 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 10 5 5 7 13 18 15 14 15 9 SHEAR DIR 49 26 42 51 55 116 239 266 295 304 301 300 320 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 145 143 142 141 139 138 138 137 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 67 64 58 53 44 42 38 40 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 11 0 -1 -7 -20 -20 -13 -3 -17 -46 -58 -51 200 MB DIV 89 49 44 48 28 12 3 17 1 -18 10 20 15 LAND (KM) 1016 1008 976 956 955 924 930 958 1000 1070 1154 1287 1432 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.9 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.8 22.0 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 162.8 163.9 165.0 165.9 166.8 167.5 168.1 168.7 169.3 170.1 171.0 172.3 173.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 7 5 5 4 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 64 64 34 32 30 62 53 47 40 22 39 18 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 20. 24. 29. 31. 26. 19. 12. 7. 1. -4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032009 NEKI 10/20/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 36% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032009 NEKI 10/20/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY